Modeling the systemic trade risk of crude oil from a network perspective, combined with a sentiment proxy

Introduction: Trade networks of crude oil are susceptible to cascade initial shocks that increase systemic trade risks and threaten energy security. This study introduces a novel method modelling risk which is combined with sentiment proxy from network perspective. Method: We construct instability evaluate the uncertainty in country use PageRank algorithm measure supplier diversity perspective instead direct partners. Result: At global level, we show distribution has an obvious heterogeneity significant negative correlation between volume volatility. regional compare China America strongly correlations price volatility both America. Furthermore, structure can effectively reduce while it increases China. Discussion: Our results give reason for irrational practice Chinese imports “buying when rising not buying declining”.